Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
