Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
